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Exp Branching Markov Dormancy Trigger 69
short_trigger_beats_immediate_at_high_persistence 0.0016754 +/- 0.00081064 (d=2.0668, sign-consistent=100.0%); long_trigger_overdelays_high_persistence 0.54655 +/- 0.00050366 (d=1085.2, sign-consistent=100.0%); delay_hurts_fast_switching 0 +/- 0 (d=0, sign-consistent=0.0%)
CONFIRMED (asymmetric). Long trigger thresholds massively overdelay high-persistence populations (d=1085, 100% sign consistent across 26 seeds) — one of the largest effect sizes in the dataset. Short triggers provide a small but consistent advantage over immediate dormancy at high persistence (+0.0017, d=2.07, 100% consistent). The fast-switching penalty is exactly zero: delay neither helps nor hurts fast-switching populations. The mechanism is clear: a short-delay trigger gives a marginal edge by allowing brief assessment before committing to dormancy, while long triggers catastrophically miss the window. The asymmetry between short and long trigger effects is the finding.
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